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Historical Note | |
Preface | |
Introduction | p. 1 |
The Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism | p. 4 |
Generalization | p. 5 |
Experiment | p. 7 |
Novelty | p. 8 |
Complexity | p. 10 |
Inexactitude of Prediction | p. 11 |
Objectivity and Valuation | p. 12 |
Holism | p. 15 |
Intuitive Understanding | p. 17 |
Quantitative Methods | p. 21 |
Essentialism versus Nominalism | p. 23 |
The Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism | p. 31 |
Comparison with Astronomy. Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecasts | p. 32 |
The Observational Basis | p. 34 |
Social Dynamics | p. 35 |
Historical Laws | p. 36 |
Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering | p. 37 |
The Theory of Historical Development | p. 40 |
Interpreting versus Planning Social Change | p. 44 |
Conclusion of the Analysis | p. 46 |
Criticism of the Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines | p. 50 |
Practical Aims of this Criticism | p. 50 |
The Technological Approach to Sociology | p. 53 |
Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering | p. 58 |
The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism | p. 65 |
Criticism of Holism | p. 70 |
The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments | p. 76 |
The Variability of Experimental Conditions | p. 85 |
Are Generalizations Confined to Periods? | p. 89 |
Criticism of the Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines | p. 96 |
Is there a Law of Evolution? Laws and Trends | p. 96 |
The Method of Reduction. Causal Explanation. Prediction and Prophecy | p. 110 |
The Unity of Method | p. 120 |
Theoretical and Historical Sciences | p. 132 |
Situational Logic in History. Historical Interpretation | p. 136 |
The Institutional Theory of Progress | p. 141 |
Conclusion: The Emotional Appeal of Historicism | p. 148 |
Index | p. 150 |
Table of Contents provided by Blackwell. All Rights Reserved. |
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Karl Popper's "The Poverty of Historicism" is a devastating criticism of the idea that there are fixed laws in history and that human beings are able to predict them. Popper dedicated the book to all those "who fell victim to the fascist and communist belief in Inexorable Laws of Historical Destiny". It has inspired generations of intellectuals, policy makers and general readers alike. On its publication in 1957, it was hailed by Arthur Koestler as "probably the only book published this year which will outlive the century".
--- From the Publisher
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