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“Math-based models have become the secret machinery of our society, and this book draws back the curtain for a close look…. A complex subject rendered in accessible terms, with good advice for using models without drowning in data.”―Kirkus (starred)

"An eye-opening account of the limits and uses of mathematical models... a thoughtful, convincing look at how data works."―Publishers Weekly (starred)

“Data, computing power, AI, and the models that use them will continue to proliferate. The wisdom, life experience, and humility to make the best use of those powerful tools will remain scarce. This delightfully wide-ranging book offers heaps of the latter to help us generate genuine insights from the former.”―Charles J. Wheelan, New York Times-bestselling author of Naked Statistics

“A brilliant account of how models are so often abused and of how they should be used.”―John Kay, author of Other People’s Money

“Escape from Model Land demystifies the process of making the mathematical models that are increasingly used to make decisions about our lives, from the financial markets to the pandemic to climate change. A thought-provoking and helpful guide for data scientists and decision makers alike.”―Stephanie Hare, author of Technology Is Not Neutral

“A wise, lucid and compelling guide to how mathematical modelling shapes our world. Thompson teaches us how to go from being unthinking consumers of models to sophisticated users, combining a rich variety of vivid examples and case studies with deep conceptual expertise, presented in a lively and accessible way.”―Stian Westlake, CEO, Royal Statistical Society

Chapter Page
1. Locating Model Land 1
2. Thinking Inside the Box 13
3. Models as Metaphors 30
4. The Cat that Looks Most Like a Do 47
5. Fiction, Prediction and Conviction 74
6. The Accountability Gap 93
7. Masters of the Universe 114
8. The Atmosphere is Complicated 137
9. Totally Under Control 178
10. Escaping from Model Land 202
Acknowledgements 225
Further Reading 229
Index 237

Why mathematical models are so often wrong, and how we can make better decisions by accepting their limits

Whether we are worried about the spread of COVID-19 or making a corporate budget, we depend on mathematical models to help us understand the world around us every day. But models aren’t a mirror of reality. In fact, they are fantasies, where everything works out perfectly, every time. And relying on them too heavily can hurt us.

In Escape from Model Land, statistician Erica Thompson illuminates the hidden dangers of models. She demonstrates how models reflect the biases, perspectives, and expectations of their creators. Thompson shows us why understanding the limits of models is vital to using them well. A deeper meditation on the role of mathematics, this is an essential book for helping us avoid either confusing the map with the territory or throwing away the map completely, instead pointing to more nuanced ways to Escape from Model Land.